Sunday, June 11, 2017

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The Worst Nightmare

Matt Treacey writing @ Brocaire Books feels that Sinn Fein's nuts are now in the hellfire of the DUP. Matt Treacy is author of the recently published A Tunnel To The Moon.
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Party like it’s 1922, as Prince said.

After all the brouhaha of being on the verge of a united Ireland, what do we have?

Potentially the most right wing pro Unionist government since Lord Birkenhead was shooting grouse and boasting about putting the Zulus and miners and the Paddies back into their box.

Electoral facts are that the combined unionist v nationalist votes are more or less the same as they have ever been;: Between them, Sinn Féin and the SDLP took 41.1% and the unionist parties – and yes the Alliance Party are unionists – took 54.2%.

So what possesses anyone to believe that a border poll would be in favour of a united Ireland? In 1998 the combined Sinn Féin/SDLP vote was 38.7%. By such an exponential rate of progress, nationalist parties will have a majority in 2107. And that is assuming Catholics remain virile and fertile and that all the babies vote the right way.

The fact is that this is a beaten flush. Much as the shinners may celebrate the defeat of Corbyn, yes he lost,  the fact is that this is worst electoral outcome for Irish nationalism in a century.

Perhaps the proxy vote operation needs to be finessed.

In the meantime, the DUP are in their grannies, as Dubs say. It is the perfect storm for them. They don’t even need to go back into Stormont although the logistics of maintaining a party and its finances and workers probably means that they will.

For the shinners, do they bite the pillow again and return to Lord Carson, or do they tough it out and refuse to engage?

My money is on the pillow biting.

3 comments :

larry hughes said...

Considering they have been sucking the truncheon and biting the pillow as a 'manifesto' none if this will make any difference to SF or anyone else. Lets be honest, does anyone care what - if anything happens at Stormont? It is all wonderful exposure of the DUP in GB. No harm there. It is a similar scenario politically to 1912 with Tories cynically using the Orange Card for short term gains. But there is not the social imperative, desperation or severe hardship of that time. No one is going to lose too much sleep over this and in months at best the Tory Party government will be toast. So what will the DUP get in such a short time. I heard Gerry Keely on TV today outlining the scenario and for my money he was bang on the nail. No one likes to slag the poor cult fraternity more than me, but I saw little fault in his assessment. Don't panic - don't panic Mr Manwerring!! The return of a genuine Labour Party is of more interest to me, wonderful.

larry hughes said...

Gery Kelly N. Belfast I was refering to, hero of the mass escape I was watching today...
typo there Mackers sorry about that.

trojanbaz said...

Regarding the difference in vote percentage what's rarely taken into account when these figures are thrown out there is the absolute fact that there's a sizeable republican base who won't countenance voting for sinn fein...and another sizeable chunk who dont vote in british elections..border poll ? Different kettle of fish...so I believe the figure is very misleading. .but you can be sure the gap is nothing like what the election results show..