Friday, July 1, 2016

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The Cunning Plan To Defeat Brexit

James Wilson assesses the outcome of Brexit. Dr James Wilson is an ex-combatant of the Irish Troubles, and an occasional consultant to Expac North. He worked in corporate counsel/PR in the City of London until 2005.


It is clearly emerging that the Leave camp in the UK Referendum had no detailed plan of what the UK’s economic position would look like outside the EU. Indeed I would go a step further and argue that many of the Conservative campaigners (including Boris) did not expect or indeed relish winning the vote. They would have been happy for the Remain camp to win and secured their credentials as Euro-sceptics in much the same way as SDLP types occasionally revisit their aspirations as republicans (small r) to a 32 county united Ireland.

In an earlier article I mentioned how voters in traditional Labour heartlands were unhappy with the European Union. As a socialist they reflected my own disquiet with the transition I had witnessed in the EU. Back in the last century, the European Commission under Jacques Delore was at the forefront of championing workers' rights in the face of Thatcherism, but this sense of advocacy terminated abruptly with the end of the Cold War.

Peter Drucker in this thought provoking thesis (Post Capitalist Society,1993), argues convincingly that every few hundred years in Western history there occurs a sharp transformation. Thus we passed from medieval to Renaissance, and between 1776 and 1809 via the Enlightenment we entered the modern age. In 1989 we began the transition into post-modernity.

For academics such as Fukuyama however, with the end of the Cold War, capitalist democracy had not only defeated communism but every socialist brand of ideology. Post modernity he wrote was the age where neo liberal economics would serve the platform for the “final form of human government” in political multi national unions. (End of History and the Last Man, 1992).

And so this became the vision of the EU. Open economic competition wouldn’t lead to conflict, it would replace it. Tariffs would go, and all the means of production would move across borders as required. This meant re-educating our people. Youth were taught to stop being citizens and become consumers. Internationalism and solidarity was replaced with a sexy cosmopolitism.

You can see it in the arrogance of the privileged millennium babes as they preach from their Glastonbury pulpit. A hectoring abuse of the 4 million working poor who have spoiled their binge in the hedonistic politics of lifestyle at Club EU. They have been oblivious to the need for EU reform, and now the party may be over. Shame. Do a concert for your local foodbank.

And the ‘new’ capitalism worked – for a while. Or at least that was the illusion. Money moved in and out of the Celtic Tiger Ireland at the speed of a mouse click. The lives of working people were shaped by the boom-bust cycle that is the heart beat of rampant neo-liberalism. With a lingering emphasis on the bust. And this week the EU Commission endorsed Irish water charges. (RTE,22/06/16).

Brexit is indeed more about Europe than Britain (Matt O’Brien, Washington Post, 29 June). At the heart of the financial EU is the City [of London]. In its glass and steel towers the midnight oil is burning as strategies are sought to cancel the wishes of the referendum and put the excreta back in the horse. There is just too much investment at stake if the services of the city were to be denied the multinationals. On Friday 24th the German, French, Spanish and Italian stock markets dropped 6.8, 8.0, 12.4 and 12.5 respectfully. By contrast the London stock “only” dropped 3.2%.

With the rich corporate pickings of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Treaty in the offing, it is essential London and its rebellious non metropolitan baggage lands are retained in the union. The answer is seen to lie in the fact that the UK is essentially a pre-enlightenment monarchy. There is no written constitution, and with Parliament ultimately sovereign that’s where the final decision to leave or remain will be taken.

Article 50 is well and truly parked and between the autumn of 2016 and the spring of 2017, a General Election will be called. There is the small matter of the Fixed Term Act (2011) but also opinion that it can be circumvented by these very special circumstances. Corporate donations to pro-EU candidates/parties accompanied by the mother of all PR campaigns would pack Westminster with “Remainers with a mandate”. The peasants' revolt/referendum of 2016 will be quietly forgotten….

Or will it? The EU has had its boat well and truly rocked. It is time re-educate the working class on their birthright of citizenship. To use the shockwaves of potential change in the EU, UK and Ireland as an agent for radicalisation. To get out of tribal silos and rediscover internationalism with fellow British and European workers. (What about a rally in Belfast to show solidarity with the French against El Khomri employment bill? Pro EU campaigners welcome).

Veteran republican socialist Tommy McKearney highlighted the potential thus; ‘the world is in the process of change. The point is to influence what is happening’ (McKearney, 2011). Or as they say in Tyrone, that’s a breaking ball.

10 comments :

Hoffman Fisher said...

A very interesting article which covers a massive amount of ground, however on the 3rd paragraph from the end concerning article 50, with triggering that aspect of the Lisbon Treaty there are a few points that I'll pro-offer for digestion.
(1) Technically MPs could block an EU exit, after all the referendum result is not legally binding and whatever terms of withdrawal are hammered out with the EU that withdrawal agreement would have to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification.

(2) House of Commons library report: "If the Commons resolves against ratification, the treaty can still be ratified if the Government lays a statement explaining why the referendum/treaty should nonetheless be ratified and the House of Commons does not resolve against ratification a second time within 21 days (this process can be repeated ad infinitum)."

(3) One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020. No matter what scenario plays out there will be scalps to be had for a long time to come.

On a slightly different note, I've always known Westminster by its other name 'Perfidious Albion', it did not receive this nick name lightly and other things do seem to be in play and no one is picking up on this, however I would advise readers to follow this link;
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2016-17/armedforcesdeploymentroyalprerogative.html

Each and every time the british military are to be deployed certain actions must be followed as a matter of diplomacy. Where the military are being deployed to is not in the bill 'yet', but one things for sure is that they're being put on standby for rapid deployment, in the event.

Rgds

HF

kevin o'neill said...

Very detailed article, one that leads to the question-what will the EU and English government have learned from this particular battle between national governments and one super government?.
Perhaps the most insightful article I've read on Brexit.

Hoffman Fisher.
Certainly thought provoking comments.

Niall said...

Cameron's delay in resigning is a calculated move from a man who lives and breaths PR. Watch out for him in the coming weeks. He out foxed Boris and the boys by removing himself from having to invoke the breakup of the UK. But he isn't done yet. If Glen Hoddle can be reconsidered for the England job then PR Dave is up to something!
May who is destined to succeed him will not invoke Article 50 either until she gets a deal on human rights which she has been trying to do for a long time now. She will gladly comply with freedom of movement as that will take them out of EU and at the same time give them access to the single market thus undermining all those in the Leave campaign and making them look silly.....Boris has foreseen this.
What we don't know is how she will treat the treachery of the DUP.....that will be interesting.

Buncrana Together said...

Try this site all you need to know about this supranational state

https://nationalplatform.org/2016/04/13/tackling-the-eu-empire-basic-critical-facts-on-eueurozone-a-handbook-for-european-democrats/

larry hughes said...

The EU for decades has facilitated its own never ending expansion by throwing out free cash to the governments of member states. Unregulated money deliberately designed to enrich, bribe and own the political masters in each member nation. The criminal bankers deliberately set about causing internationl economic genocide for self enrichment. The single currency left nations with no way out of the mess. The EU then enslaved the ordinary people within its control area with a decade minimum of austerity. This has been possible by the reigning in of the same bought and paid for political elites in each member country. The EU stands for big business and criminal banks before the ordinary citizenry. Nothing else. Our only 'gain', the people, is the freedom of movement around the EU. If you can afford a ticket. This is NOT a generous plan to prevent us all needing a visa to get to Benidorm or Corfu. It is a cunning mechanism to permit 3rd world peasants visa free travel to UK German and French fields and factories where they can work for 5 euro an hour. The Brexit was a long time coming and hopefully only the beginning of many more. Unfortunately it was the Tory Party that delivered the long over due boot to the EU testicles. The UK elite are already preparing to ignore the electorate however in typical EU fashion. The likes of Gove and May if the brexit goes through will also ignore the GFA and SF will be a busted flush. Nowhere to go but their handlers to complain. TAKE THE WAR TO ENGLAND. Join the Labour Party and support Jeremy Corbyn in the fight against Tory Party economic fascism.

Niall said...

Larry,
The banks are here too! They've always been here. It doesn't matter where they are headquartered....by opting out of Europe doesn't in any fashion negate their ability to control the world's finances....in fact it brings them closer to home.
I read Eamon Mccann' view of why he voted to leave the EU. He made some good points but generally all he achieved by doing so was to bring them closer to home.
How can he recommend leaving the EU and not Stormont? He will have as much success sitting in Stormont as he will have sitting outside the EU.

larry hughes said...

Nial

What you say is correct of course. Globalisation of influence is the game at play. Also it is the old saying 'if voting changed anything they'd make it illegal'. The EU at the end of the day is NOT for the benefit of joe soap. Politics generally isn't but with more and more people globally copping on to the fraud of 'democracy' a brake needs applying somewhere. I hazard a guess 40%+ of EU citizens in the advanced nations ie. N. Europe want an end to the project or for its advance to halt. Probably pre Lisbon Treaty in fact, as that was railroaded through. It is trundling along blindly on its own agenda with no regards for the people. Ignoring them effectively and its own rules at the same time. Stormont is just a bunch of Big House uncle Toms, Green and Orange, who rubber stamp Viliars/Trevelyan's orders. So it's hardly a good example. Eamonn likely feels after all his political input he's as entitled to a few expenses at his stage of life as much as the shinners are. At least in the 26 counties there's a thawing of the civil war fraudulent cute hoor cherade in sight. If there's a regaining of sovereignty then perhaps all the street protests over water charges may be effective at some point. Brussels has just told the Dail the water charges must go through. Bollox to those fat bastards I say.

The problem on this wee island is the determination to live in the past. Remove 'republican' from the dictionary and 'unionism' and give a few generations a chance to breathe. Scotland wont be joining the EU. I love the SNP for their national pride, their effective, professional approach to politics. But the EU will not advance the break up of the UK and the Iberian peninsula. It is the opposite of their scheme. Expansion is their game. Market expansion. Ireland will of necessity move closer to the UK because of 90% exports going there. Republicanism lost that trade war with reality under de Valera and Lemass decided to get real and cut the crap. O'Cuiv has stated joining the Commonwealth is a viable option on practical business terms and for the realistic possibility of Irish reunification. I am beginning to see merit in the idea. A 32 county Ireland in the Commonwealth with no RUC or Mi5 here and doing business with both the Commonwealth and the EU. No dictat from London. Wee huns happy, everyone happy. Except 'republicans' of course. Go figure. I wonder do they give GB credit for the free movement of Irish citizens throughout the UK and Commonwealth even during the troubles? Most of our talented youth are already in the Commonwealth. I suspect that notion would carry more weight with the prods than Eire Nua.

eurofree3 said...

If republicans' primary goal is Irish Re-Unification, I advocate a stepping-stone policy, as many in Scotland seem to be doing.

Remain in the EU to get northern ireland out of the UK. Take advantage of the potentially very rich pickings to be had with the Brexit spoils share-out (always supposing brexit goes ahead).

Somwhere further down the line, once a reunited ireland and indy scotland have bedded down, hold Scottex/Irex referendums if the people want them.

If not continue on contributing to improve the irish republic, happy in the knowledge that Emmet's dream has come true and "ireland has taken her place among the nations of the world" and that Tone's dream of "uniting catholic, protestant and dissenter under the common name of irishman " has also come true.

https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/07/01/after-brexit-never-a-dull-moment/

Buncrana Together said...

Yes indeed solidarity with british working class, solidarity with european working class and I would be all for a demonstration of this in Belfast, Dublin. To show solidarity we should be supporting Corbyn in the hope that he can get rid of the right. I think not only were the right wing surprised by the Brexit vote but they were also surprised by Corbyn election last year and his popularity. It kind of showed the level of disaffection with the labour right. The tories and right wing labour for the past year were out to make sure that the left would not rise. Cameron's days were numbered. They knew he possibly had to go even before Brexit. Both sides of the Tory divide ins and outs were working for this same cause. But they did not bank on Brexit winning, hence the shock.

Steve Ricardos said...

eurofree3

"Remain in the EU to get northern ireland out of the UK. Take advantage of the potentially very rich pickings to be had with the Brexit spoils share-out (always supposing brexit goes ahead)."

Not sure how much 'spoils' Ireland will get 17th in line in the EU and soon to move further down the line when Turkey joins?

Or the fact that the UK is Ireland's largest trading partner?

Don't think anybody knows how this is going to play out yet.